Let's have a thread about the virus, then. We might as well.

This is the place where you can confab about all the other stuff besides videogames.
User avatar
Alex79uk
Member
Posts: 6404
Joined: September 2nd, 2012, 12:36 pm
Location: Walsall, UK.
Contact:

Re: Let's have a thread about the virus, then. We might as well.

Post by Alex79uk »

Hopefully it a) works effectively on a mass scale, and b) isn't prohibitively expensive.

User avatar
Stanshall
Member
Posts: 2294
Joined: January 31st, 2016, 6:45 am

Re: Let's have a thread about the virus, then. We might as well.

Post by Stanshall »

Interesting analysis here of the UK approach:

https://twitter.com/iandonald_psych/sta ... 49538?s=09

It does acknowledge that it's based on a number of assumptions and requires a precise balance of who to allow/encourage to transmit and who to isolate, but it also explains the remark yesterday that the government will be able to force some schools to stay open and some to close, which sounded absurd to me. There does seem to be some feasibility to this strategy having read around it, although it remains a gamble because of the assumptions and the variables which are very hard to control (isolation of the over-70s) and fundamentally whether immunity will occur.

However, without immunity or vaccine in China and elsewhere, what does the future really involve for them? What is their longer term plan? I suspect their plan will be an impossible and unsustainable one for any other country on Earth. It will involve rigorous testing, tracking and enforced quarantine and basically detention centres. It'll be very effective and if there are any notable flare-ups, they'll just turn off lights again. Laborious but effective. We don't have the manpower.

Ours is a gamble then but actually, I do get it, and it seems to be the most difficult, complex approach with the most sustainable outcome. What are Italy going to do given the continued and increasing strain? It will slow at some point but what next? Their end result is the same as ours, in fact, except it won't be staggered in the same way. Theirs will perhaps come in waves and lulls as they reopen and reintroduce the virus and have to close up again, intermittently.

If we systematically isolate and then introduce different groups to this in as controlled a manner as possible, that's arguably the best way to use our very limited resources and capacity.

They're apparently publishing their reasoning imminently but I don't have any confidence in that. I am slightly...hmm, hopeful isn't the word, really... I understand the reasoning behind this approach, I can say.

User avatar
Alex79uk
Member
Posts: 6404
Joined: September 2nd, 2012, 12:36 pm
Location: Walsall, UK.
Contact:

Re: Let's have a thread about the virus, then. We might as well.

Post by Alex79uk »

The UK death toll has doubled overnight: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51889957

I was literally just this second thinking I'd not really heard much more about it today, then that headline popped in my news feed.

:(

User avatar
DomsBeard
Member
Posts: 3533
Joined: September 2nd, 2012, 5:03 pm
Location: Doms Chin

Re: Let's have a thread about the virus, then. We might as well.

Post by DomsBeard »

I've had a bad cold for about 10 days. Mid way through I contacted 111 who told me to do an online quiz which basically said "you haven't been to China or Italy so you'll be fine". They recommend getting a drs appointment which I was told would be two weeks at least. Luckily my work circumstances have changed so I'm at home anyway so I did semi isolate myself.

My wife had a jab at the drs yesterday and the nurse said she was lucky as all non essential procedures at drs will be cancelled as of Monday apparently.

No toilet rolls or hand sanitiser anywhere in Yorkshire either. Again luckily before this kicked off I had bulk bought toilet roll, nappies, baby wipes and anti bac wipes as I usually do this once a quarter anyway.

The biggest event in my previous line of work has just been cancelled which was at the Excel in London in two weeks.

User avatar
DomsBeard
Member
Posts: 3533
Joined: September 2nd, 2012, 5:03 pm
Location: Doms Chin

Re: Let's have a thread about the virus, then. We might as well.

Post by DomsBeard »

Alex79uk wrote:
March 14th, 2020, 2:36 pm
The UK death toll has doubled overnight: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51889957

I was literally just this second thinking I'd not really heard much more about it today, then that headline popped in my news feed.

:(
I'm finding it strange that there's very little talk of how you can get tested however anyone high profile tends to get one no bother.

The confirmed cases number is a joke. If they are not testing anyone and telling them to self isolate they might as well plug a number out of thin air as it has little relevance.

User avatar
Stanshall
Member
Posts: 2294
Joined: January 31st, 2016, 6:45 am

Re: Let's have a thread about the virus, then. We might as well.

Post by Stanshall »

Have a look at the link I posted up top, mate.

The plan is not to test as it's now a waste of resources and manpower according to our strategy. At some point, there will be a lockdown of sorts but probably with a focus on the most vulnerable groups. There's an assumption that it's far far more widespread and that its now about controlled isolation and a staggered hit on the NHS, starting with the largest, lowest risk group. Get the lowest risk patients treated and try to minimise transmission to the highest risk and the NHS will be...better able isn't the phrase...the impact may not put the NHS completely out of action. Later, when herd immunity develops (only a theory, but a reasonable expectation), we can then control the transmission to the higher risk groups when we have relatively greater capacity or ideally have more information/resources/vaccines/treatment.

It's a massive fucking gamble with thousands of lives, but that's why they're not testing.

User avatar
Stanshall
Member
Posts: 2294
Joined: January 31st, 2016, 6:45 am

Re: Let's have a thread about the virus, then. We might as well.

Post by Stanshall »

I think the messaging has been terrible but I now understand the plan and - I'm going to to say this - I agree with it based on the fragilities and limitations of our infrastructure.


- We have too many people who need to keep working and earning or they will starve/do whatever necessary to not starve. From one perspective, this is likely motivated by Johnson's corporate sponsors. Parallel to this, it's an acknowledgement of the frailties of our economy and welfare system; this is also the fault of the corporate sponsors but it's nevertheless the situation we're in. We can take political action when this is over. My mates in Wuhan have had six weeks of food and toiletries packages delivered to their door which they clean with 70% alcohol before bringing into the apartment. My mate's husband has been in a quarantine hotel for a month, three meals a day plus clean clothes and regular testing and monitoring. That manpower and well of resources don't exist elsewhere. Businesses here will need to restructure staffing and working conditions to continue to function and the government will need to help them both logistically and economically.

- Italy, Spain and France have attempted to put a cork in this but what do they do next? What do they do when people run out of food and soap? Again, 'keeping the economy going' is at once a diktat from our corporate taskmasters and also the practical reality for the individual to have enough food and toiletries to ensure self-isolation and to simply exist. Looking ahead, China has the resources, infrastructure, experience and compliance to enforce repeat lockdowns to deal with the intermittent spikes and waves. Is that also the intention for Italy? They have absolutely no chance. Ultimately, they will have to move towards a 'controlled transmission' model, similar to our own.

- A lot of the weird government messaging up to this point is consistent with the proposed UK model. That gives me - if not comfort - an ability to join the dots and to see our approach as a plan rather than a simple reaction. The authority 'to force schools to close and to stay open' seemed absurd phrasing to me without the current context, but now I see that there is a massive difference between closing an inner city comp of 1500 students and closing a suburban grammar school of 400. Please excuse the broad examples but if you see this approach as turning on and off a series of taps, they are different sizes and have different rates of flow. Beyond this, and perhaps controversially, you need to look at the demographics further to avoid taking healthcare professionals out of action by closing certain schools in different areas.



Basically, for this to work:

- The economically vulnerable need to work or the impact will dwarf that of the coronavirus.

- Government will have to work closely with industry to manage the practicalities of staffing, payroll and working conditions.

- The medically vulnerable need to isolate until we are better equipped to care for them.

- We all need to follow the plan as best we can to reduce variable interference.

- If herd immunity does not occur, we still need to do this until the vaccine arrives because the alternative is to wait to starve.

- As a criticism of the above, travel bans and immediate initial lockdown may have bought us more time on the shallower curve to plan and communicate the practicalities and reasoning of this approach.

Please please challenge any of the above, these are my accumulated thoughts at this point in time.

User avatar
Simonsloth
Member
Posts: 1311
Joined: November 22nd, 2017, 7:17 am
Location: London
Contact:

Re: Let's have a thread about the virus, then. We might as well.

Post by Simonsloth »

I agree with all you’ve said Stan.

The genie is out of the bottle and there is no way to contain it any more so the government think a controlled spread to the least vulnerable gradually makes more sense.

The cynic in me says the government are well aware the most vulnerable are those who the biggest financial drain on society so it would long term reduce the public sector spend. It’s awful but it’s not surprising from this government.

Children are the least affected and their symptoms can be absent or as trivial as a snotty nose but unless the child has a severe cough/fever/breathless they are still being packed off to school or other public places to spread the virus. Nowhere in the government advice does it mention the normal symptoms of a Coronavirus like sneezing, runny nose etc as a criteria for staying home but at the same time we are being told to catch our sneezes to stop the spread. There’s also theories that children given their mild symptoms are less infectious although this is all conjecture.

Also interestingly contact tracing in the UK is basically going to be massively reduced so if a case tests positive and you were a contact you may not be informed at all.

User avatar
ratsoalbion
Admin
Posts: 7352
Joined: August 28th, 2012, 9:41 am
Location: Brighton, England
Contact:

Re: Let's have a thread about the virus, then. We might as well.

Post by ratsoalbion »

Two Observer pieces today broadly agree with this as well. The angle is that, while it’s hard for a lot of us to have any faith in our current government, they are acting based on science. There are plenty who vehemently disagree with this strategy too of course.

Useful article for some:
https://medium.com/@ashleyfairbanks/100 ... d980584d8b

User avatar
Stanshall
Member
Posts: 2294
Joined: January 31st, 2016, 6:45 am

Re: Let's have a thread about the virus, then. We might as well.

Post by Stanshall »

Thanks, Leon. Great article and one which has prompted me to jump in the bath and have some lunch.

After the bath, I mean.

User avatar
Craig
Member
Posts: 576
Joined: October 25th, 2015, 1:04 pm

Re: Let's have a thread about the virus, then. We might as well.

Post by Craig »

Schools closed here in Japan two weeks ago so I’ve been heading to the Kindergarten I work, but there’s been no kids to teach so we’ve been doing admin work. Graduation tomorrow but shorter than usual, fewer guests allowed and masks on all times.

Everyone is a bit tense at the moment, but it doesn’t seem to be escalating too much here. I’m being extra careful though as I take medication which actively lowers my immune system, and work with small sticky children, so I’m not venturing anywhere but the supermarket and work. Im washing my hands so much I reckon I’ve managed to wash my finger prints off.

Abe is still insisting the Olympics will go ahead as scheduled. This seems hopelessly optimistic at best. Even if this has subsided in four months, there’ll still be thousands dead and everyone will still be jumpy especially regarding international events. I’m guessing he wants it to be the event that unites and heals the world. It won’t. And the sooner they’re honest with themselves and announce it postponed, the sooner we can mitigate the change.

User avatar
chase210
Member
Posts: 999
Joined: June 3rd, 2013, 11:22 am

Re: Let's have a thread about the virus, then. We might as well.

Post by chase210 »

I went to Sainsbury’s before, they actually had toilet rolls, and a big sign saying ‘2 packs of toilet roll per customer maximum’ and some woman was screaming at the staff because they were telling her she couldn’t buy the 15 packs of toilet roll she’d bunged in her trolley ‘HOW DARE YOU I WILL BE REPORTING THIS TO MY MP AND TO TRADING STANDARDS HOW DARE YOU’

People have gone off the deep end.

User avatar
ironedflemming
Member
Posts: 11
Joined: November 15th, 2019, 4:02 pm

Re: Let's have a thread about the virus, then. We might as well.

Post by ironedflemming »

My partners 95 year old grandmother has been hospitalized the last week with symptoms and now just tested positive. Saddest part is that the grandkids cant go visit her, they've only allowed her direct children to go in one at a time and they had to be fully decked out in a sealed bodysuit.

Does anyone else keep veering between this will all blow over to 'fuck, this is getting worse & worse'?

User avatar
ratsoalbion
Admin
Posts: 7352
Joined: August 28th, 2012, 9:41 am
Location: Brighton, England
Contact:

Re: Let's have a thread about the virus, then. We might as well.

Post by ratsoalbion »

I’m afraid it’s highly likely to get a lot worse before it gets better. The next year is going to be very tough so let’s all try to be here for one another if and when we can.

User avatar
dezm0nd
Moderator
Posts: 4112
Joined: August 28th, 2012, 9:48 am
Location: Leighton Buzzard

Re: Let's have a thread about the virus, then. We might as well.

Post by dezm0nd »

Closing the schools just seems like a mine field. Means staying at home which means no work which means less money.

Sure I've got family to look after my daughter so I can work but just the idea in general blows my mind.

User avatar
Michiel K
Moderator
Posts: 1151
Joined: October 13th, 2015, 9:37 pm

Re: Let's have a thread about the virus, then. We might as well.

Post by Michiel K »

They've closed the schools here now as well. We're getting teaching materials sent home. I'm lucky enough that I can work from home and look after the kids, but my heart goes out to those in a tougher situation.

Thanks for starting this thread, Alex. Been good reading these perspectives.

And Stanshall, I want you to know that the story about your friend in Wuhan really affected me. Makes the whole thing so much more real. What a thing to go through. Give him my best when you speak to him, please.

User avatar
Alex79uk
Member
Posts: 6404
Joined: September 2nd, 2012, 12:36 pm
Location: Walsall, UK.
Contact:

Re: Let's have a thread about the virus, then. We might as well.

Post by Alex79uk »

Jeez what a day...

I went today from sitting in a lecture being told "there are no plans to close the University at the moment. We plan to continue teaching"...

...to getting an email at 5pm saying "University will close on Friday for four weeks and we will move to online learning"...

...to another email at 6:30pm saying, "University is closed with immediate effect. All face to face teaching is cancelled and we will be delivering online lectures from tomorrow".

:o

User avatar
Suits
Member
Posts: 3170
Joined: October 28th, 2015, 3:25 pm
Location: Chelmsford, UK

Re: Let's have a thread about the virus, then. We might as well.

Post by Suits »

Yep. Fully prepared to press the all work from home button tomorrow.

We’ve been ready for it, but this I feel will be it.

User avatar
duskvstweak
Member
Posts: 802
Joined: August 23rd, 2017, 6:40 pm
Location: North Carolina
Contact:

Re: Let's have a thread about the virus, then. We might as well.

Post by duskvstweak »

I feel incredibly selfish about it all right now.

My wife and I have been trying to find new work and move for a the last few years and she finally did last month. So, we both get our notices and have been preparing to move house for the last month, as all of this has gotten worse. Now, we'll have a few weeks without insurance as we wait for her new one to kick in, and the job interview I had set up is "on hold" for who knows how long. We couldn't have planned it this poorly but I feel stupid about this whole thing, knowing if we hadn't done this back in early Jan, we would be feeling more secure about it all.

But, then, I'm filled with the guilt knowing how easy I still have it as this as all going on. I'm worried about finding a way to move 600 miles from a voluntary and desired transition, poor me.

User avatar
ratsoalbion
Admin
Posts: 7352
Joined: August 28th, 2012, 9:41 am
Location: Brighton, England
Contact:

Re: Let's have a thread about the virus, then. We might as well.

Post by ratsoalbion »

Don't feel bad about feeling affected in whatever way.

Sure, be thankful that it's not worse but this situation is going to have all kinds of ramifications for all kinds of people.

Post Reply